Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.792550 3.266309 3.791934 4.417786 5.142151 5.953654 6.931258
2025-12-07 2.021250 2.642974 3.408148 4.416628 5.708286 7.304521 9.424282
2025-12-14 1.539882 2.207981 3.103471 4.385846 6.168865 8.553256 11.976072
2025-12-21 1.232153 1.910708 2.888304 4.389520 6.625093 9.817140 14.703785
2025-12-28 1.100289 1.824661 2.934586 4.743173 7.597202 11.902923 18.858841
2026-01-04 0.943494 1.663420 2.830083 4.836007 8.171137 13.457261 22.417534
2026-01-11 0.819454 1.528092 2.736744 4.918936 8.722905 15.026669 26.183812
2026-01-18 0.709529 1.394412 2.619651 4.934610 9.150709 16.430357 29.837078
2026-01-25 0.612602 1.265268 2.486682 4.895219 9.465618 17.665640 33.336899
2026-02-01 0.503415 1.091867 2.242897 4.609589 9.283992 17.989069 35.233048
2026-02-08 0.428251 0.972644 2.082671 4.456259 9.322786 18.705476 37.920909
2026-02-15 0.376830 0.893821 1.989933 4.421405 9.583640 19.863050 41.576017
2026-02-22 0.349526 0.865481 2.002410 4.617336 10.362682 22.170853 47.878273
2026-03-01 0.307404 0.795712 1.915295 4.587740 10.669096 23.577782 52.559179
2026-03-08 0.270464 0.731151 1.829124 4.546431 10.943939 24.954342 57.357328
2026-03-15 0.241288 0.680138 1.765734 4.547101 11.311899 26.574036 62.883040
2026-03-22 0.235635 0.689242 1.848831 4.911785 12.577296 30.328172 73.613565
2026-03-29 0.216337 0.657651 1.824980 5.007401 13.210511 32.723667 81.530968
2026-04-05 0.198703 0.627197 1.798934 5.093017 13.830421 35.161667 89.841240
2026-04-12 0.180154 0.590324 1.749572 5.109180 14.275772 37.235125 97.524904
2026-04-19 0.161649 0.549769 1.683206 5.068438 14.566351 38.963325 104.566442
2026-04-26 0.136894 0.484320 1.534677 4.773096 14.130038 38.810296 106.846856
2026-05-03 0.119688 0.439613 1.439078 4.614544 14.047203 39.554806 111.533221